I spent an hour driving the Model 3 and I want to tell you all about it. Plus: Tesla buys another company, a new software update lets you voluntarily slow down your Tesla if you want to, an update on the US federal EV tax credit situation, and more!
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Regarding how fast a 3 could be versus an S, here is what I see for stats online:
Model 3 LR weight: 3814lbs
Model S 100D weight: 4736lbs
The model 3 dual motor might be a bit heavier, but this gives us a ballpark relative weight different of the S being 20-25% heavier.
Guesstimate Model 3 battery capacity: 75-80kwh
Model S battery capacity: 100kwh
This gives us a ballpark relative energy difference of the S having 25-33% more battery.
Or if we express it as a mass/battery ratio then it's 47.3 lb/kwh for the S and around something in the 48 to 51 lb/kwh range for the 3. Basically a 10% advantage in this ratio for the S.
Now sure, the S motors could be tuned more for acceleration, across its motors, battery chemistry, tire dimensions, and inverter, but from a basic look at overall battery and overall mass, I don't think there is any reason to think that a ludicrous model 3 *must* be significantly slower than an S.
Now you might think that Tesla wouldn't want to make a 3 that fast, because it will cannibalize sales for the S. I totally agree, but in the next few years we'll quite likely see cars with high performance and quality from Porsche, Jaguar, and others, so Tesla is not only competing with themselves in what they finally deliver on with the 3. Although they may very well keep a performance gap with the S *until* the other competitors force them to unlock more performance :)